Economic Forecasting and its “Errors”

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Thomas Angeletti, 2012, « Economic Forecasting and its “Errors” », Raisons politiques, 48.

Around the 1980s, the reshaping of economic forecasting in France was reflected both in the institutions tasked with managing the economic future and in the professional ethos of economists. Focused on state intervention, forecasters at the time had little interest in the impact of their predictive statements. This descriptive and realist culture, implying a distinction between the existence of a phenomenon and its measurement, gradually accorded a greater role to looping effects and came to favor microeconomic analysis. Looking at this period enables us to outline two conceptions of the economy and ways of containing concerns about the future.